How to Forecast Low Season Demand (+ 3 Tips to Protect Your Revenue)

Peak season vs. low season, two starkly different realities for hoteliers.

In summer, your rooms with terraces and sunny ocean views are sold out almost instantly, the town buzzes with tourists, and bands on their world tour are sound-checking at the stadium down the street.

Fast forward to January: drizzle clouds the horizon, guests are scarce, and your profitability is on its knees.

The low season doesn’t have to mean lost revenue. While demand dips, smart forecasting and data-driven revenue strategies can help you maximize profits year-round.

In this blog, we’ll show you how to navigate the slower months with confidence.

Review historical data

One of the most effective ways you can forecast low-season demand is by analyzing historical data. Past performance provides valuable insights into recurring trends, seasonal dips and external factors that may have influenced customer demand in previous years.

To build an accurate forecast for your property, gather data from multiple sources, including:

• Internal past sales data: your own transaction records, occupancy rates or booking trends provide the most direct insight into past demand.

• Website and digital analytics: traffic patterns, search volume and online inquiries can indicate interest even if they didn’t convert into immediate sales.

• Market and industry reports: research industry benchmarks to compare your own trends with wider market patterns.

• Economic and external factors: consider inflation rates, travel restrictions or competitor pricing that may have impacted previous seasons.

The ideal timeframe for historical data depends on the depends on the seasonality and stability of your market and how external conditions have changed (so don’t forget to factor in the effects of the pandemic, for example):

• Start with the past 3 to 5 years to identify consistent seasonal patterns.

• If your market is stable, go back 10 to 15 years to capture long-term trends

• If you’ve seen major disruptions (e.g., economic downturns, pandemics, technological changes, new competitors etc), prioritize recent years (the last 2 to 3 seasons) while adjusting for anomalies.

By leveraging historical data effectively, you can make accurate predictions about future demand in the low-season and take proactive steps to protect revenue.

Occupancy rates

Occupancy rates are one of the most crucial data points in hotel revenue management, providing a clear snapshot of how full your property is at any given time.

When forecasting demand for the low season, monitoring historical and real-time occupancy trends can help you anticipate fluctuations and strategize accordingly.

To make the most of this metric:

• Compare year-on-year data: identify patterns in past occupancy levels for the same period. Have certain months consistently seen lower consumer demand or have there been exceptions?

• Segment your occupancy data: break down occupancy by guest type (e.g., business travelers, leisure tourists or group bookings) to see if certain segments generate high demand during your off-peak season.

• Monitor lead times: if bookings are coming in later than usual, it may indicate a softer demand period, requiring proactive revenue protection strategies.

While historical sales trends offer valuable insight, external factors can cause unexpected shifts in occupancy, even during the low season. Some unique influences include:

• Unusual weather patterns: an unseasonably warm winter can drive last-minute beach getaways, while a late snowfall can extend ski resort demand beyond its typical peak.

• Major local events: a last-minute concert, festival or sports event can drive a sudden influx of visitors. If your hotel stays on top of local activities, you can adjust your pricing and availability accordingly.

• Economic and travel trends: sudden changes in airfare prices, fuel costs or currency exchange rates can influence whether travelers book trips or stay home.

• Shifts in remote work trends: more professionals are blending work and travel, leading to increased customer demand for extended stays even in traditionally slow periods.

By staying attuned to these occupancy rate influencers, you can react quickly, adjust your forecasts and implement pricing strategies that maximize your revenue even during the low season.

Revenue

A fundamental metric in hotel management, revenue provides a direct measure of financial performance and is a key indicator of demand trends.

When forecasting low-season demand patterns, analyzing revenue beyond just room revenue is essential. Metrics like average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) offer deeper insights.

For example, if your ADR remains stable despite lower occupancy, it could indicate that high-value guests are still booking, allowing for targeted marketing strategies.

Similarly, tracking ancillary and new product revenue can help identify alternative income streams that support overall profitability during slower periods.

Several external and internal factors can influence revenue trends, even in low-demand seasons. Understanding these can help you adjust your short, medium and long-term forecasts and pricing strategies effectively. They include:

• Renovations and property upgrades: newly renovated rooms, upgraded amenities or the addition of luxury suites can justify higher room rates, even if overall occupancy is lower.

• Market shifts and competitor pricing: if competing hotels lower their rates aggressively, it can put pressure on your pricing strategy, requiring careful revenue management to maintain profitability.

• Seasonal promotions and discounts: offering bundled packages (e.g., stay-and-dine or spa discounts) through marketing campaigns can drive revenue from on-property spending, even if room rates remain competitive.

• Corporate or group bookings: securing corporate contracts or group reservations can stabilize revenue during low seasons, even if transient demand is lower.

• Unplanned external events: economic downturns, travel restrictions or global crises can reduce travel demand, while unexpected boosts – such as viral social media exposure or a high-profile celebrity stay – can create temporary spikes in revenue.

As with occupancy, by analyzing revenue trends and staying aware of these influencing factors, you can make informed pricing and marketing decisions to protect profitability all year round.

Monitor current booking reservations

Tracking on-the-books reservations is essential for seasonal demand forecasting, as it provides real-time insight into pacing, i.e. how current bookings compare to past trends.

By monitoring reservations, you can spot early signs of a slower-than-expected season and adjust your pricing, promotions or marketing efforts accordingly.

To gauge performance, compare current booking data to the same period in previous years.

Look at metrics like booking lead times, pickup and pace, and cancellations to identify shifts in demand. If reservations are lagging behind historical patterns, it may signal a need for targeted offers or rate adjustments to stimulate bookings before the low season fully sets in.

Given their importance, let’s focus a bit more on pickup and pace.

Pickup and pace

Pickup refers to the number of new reservations made within a specific period, while pace measures how bookings accumulate over time compared to past trends. These metrics are crucial for demand forecasting because they indicate whether demand is on track, lagging or exceeding expectations.

To assess performance, compare current pickup and pace against historical data for the same period. Look at booking velocity (how quickly rooms are filling up) and lead times (how far in advance guests are booking). If pace is slower than previous years, it may signal weaker demand, requiring pricing or promotional adjustments.

During the low season, healthy pickup and pace typically show steady, if slower, booking activity with minimal last-minute volatility.

A sudden drop in pace may indicate reduced travel interest, while an unexpected spike could suggest external factors – like a local event or favorable weather conditions – driving demand. Monitoring these trends allows for proactive revenue management and the optimization of your pricing strategies.

Understand market trends

Market and travel trends, such as flight search data or Airbnb rental data, reveals insights about travel demand, especially during the low season when travelers are more selective about when and where they go. Economic conditions, consumer travel preferences and emerging industry patterns can either suppress or stimulate bookings.

During the low season, even small shifts in trends can have a magnified impact, as demand is already fragile, so it’s crucial that you stay informed and are ready to adapt your strategies.

A prime example of how trends can drastically reshape demand is the post-pandemic travel boom. In 2021 to 2022, pent-up demand led to an explosion in leisure travel, disrupting traditional low-season patterns as travelers sought flexible, last-minute trips.

Resorts and destinations that typically struggled during off-peak months saw unexpected spikes in occupancy, demonstrating that external market shifts can override historical forecasting models.

Leverage real-time demand data

Real-time demand data is crucial in demand forecasting, especially in a dynamic industry like ours, where consumer behavior, market conditions and external factors can change so rapidly.

Without up-to-date insights, you risk making decisions based on outdated trends, leading to missed opportunities or costly inefficiencies. Effective forecasting relies on reliable, real-time data to adjust pricing, optimize seasonal inventory levels and enhance customer experiences, ensuring your property stays agile and competitive in an ever-evolving market.

Lighthouse is an industry leader that can provide hoteliers, revenue managers and short-term rental property owners with the competitive data insights you need to act on this advice, with such solutions as Market Insight, which provides real-time intelligence and predictive analytics to help you accurately forecast market demand with forward-looking search data.

3 Top tips to weather the low season

Inventory management, strategic pricing and upselling: these are the three tips we’d put forward for weathering the low season, so let’s jump straight into an overview of each.

1. Optimize inventory management to minimize costs

During the low season, effective inventory management is essential to control costs and maintain profitability. Best practices include temporarily closing underutilized sections of your property, consolidating bookings to maximize occupancy in specific areas, and scaling back on operational expenses like staffing, amenities and energy usage.

Dynamic pricing strategies can also help attract price-sensitive travelers while ensuring profitability.

Offsetting costs is crucial during these periods of lower demand, as it helps you maintain financial stability, prevent unnecessary losses and ensure that resources are allocated efficiently, allowing your hotel to remain agile and well prepared for recovery in peak periods.

2. Set strategic pricing to protect revenue

Pricing plays a pivotal role in maintaining revenue during the low season, as lower demand naturally puts pressure on occupancy rates and profitability. Instead of resorting to deep discounts that can devalue a brand, businesses should adopt a strategic pricing approach. This means adjusting rates dynamically based on demand fluctuations while offering targeted incentives.

Limited-time promotions, bundled deals (such as stay-and-dine packages) and loyalty discounts can help you attract bookings without slashing your base rates. Running special pricing periodically – rather than continuously – creates urgency and prevents pricing fatigue.

Additionally, leveraging data to segment customers and offer personalized discounts can help maximize revenue while maintaining rate integrity.

3. Lean into add-ons to drive extra revenue

During the low season, add-ons and seasonal products can be a powerful tool for boosting revenue without raising base rates, helping you maximize the value of every guest.

Instead of relying solely on occupancy to drive profits, consider upselling experiences, services and amenities to increase per-guest spending while enhancing the overall stay. Since staff often have more time to focus on personalization, you can tailor add-ons to guests’ interests, creating unique experiences that encourage spending and boost customer satisfaction.

You might want to experiment with some of these creative ways to leverage add-ons:

• Exclusive experiences: offer private tours, cooking classes, wine tastings or spa packages to create memorable stays.

• Personalized services: provide room customizations like pillow menus, curated minibars or special celebration packages.

• Dining and beverage upgrades: sell all-inclusive meal plans, special dining nights or happy hour deals to increase F&B revenue.

• Late check-out and room upgrades: offer discounted or complimentary upgrades to encourage longer stays or premium bookings.

• Seasonal packages: bundle stays with local activities, such as holiday markets, wellness retreats or adventure excursions.

• Loyalty incentives: reward returning guests with discounted add-ons or bonus perks, encouraging repeat business.

By strategically promoting these extras – through pre-arrival emails, front desk upselling or package bundle – your hotel can drive additional revenue while enhancing guest satisfaction.

Uncover what real demand looks like with predictive market intelligence

During the low season, staying ahead of demand fluctuations is the key to maximizing revenue. But relying solely on historical data isn’t enough.

Travel behavior is constantly shifting, influenced by emerging trends, economic shifts, and real-time market conditions. That’s where Market Insight from Lighthouse makes all the difference.

Unlike traditional forecasting methods, Market Insight provides forward-looking demand data, leveraging real-time search and booking patterns to help you anticipate demand before it materializes.

With predictive analytics, you can adjust pricing, target high-intent travelers, and optimize inventory with confidence. Instead of reacting to slow periods, you can proactively shape your revenue strategy, ensuring your property stays competitive even when demand dips.

Don’t let the low season dictate your success, use real-time intelligence to capture every possible booking. Learn more about Market Insight here.

About Lighthouse

Lighthouse (formerly OTA Insight) is the leading commercial platform for the travel & hospitality industry. We transform complexity into confidence by providing actionable market insights, business intelligence, and pricing tools that maximize revenue growth. We continually innovate to deliver the best platform for hospitality professionals to price more effectively, measure performance more efficiently, and understand the market in new ways.

Trusted by over 65,000 hotels in 185 countries, Lighthouse is the only solution that provides real-time hotel and short-term rental data in a single platform. We strive to deliver the best possible experience with unmatched customer service. We consider our clients as true partners – their success is our success.