Our 2024 credit card predictions and trends: What did we get right and wrong?

At the start of 2024, we made 10 predictions on credit card trends that we expected to see this year. Among them were higher fees, lower interest rates and superior technology.

So, as we do each year, let’s critically examine our predictions to see which ones we got right, partially right and wrong.

Credit card or coupon card?: Correct

We’re looking at you, American Express. The issuer is the king when it comes to adding new and sometimes hard-to-maximize statement credits as part of “card refreshes.”

We predicted that issuers would add new statement credits with specific partners, coming in the form of monthly, quarterly, biannual or annual chunks — and we were right.

Amex refreshed its suite of Delta cards in February, The Hilton Honors American Express Business Card in March, and the popular American Express® Gold Card in July, adding credits with partners like Dunkin’ and Resy (the latter of which is owned by American Express itself).

We didn’t really see other issuers add new statement credits this year — apart from Chase rejigging its DoorDash credits — but that doesn’t mean they won’t next year.

Usually, existing cardmembers can come out on top with increased annual fees — but only if they maximize all the existing and new statement credits.

Increased fees: Partially correct

Let’s be real: It’s uncommon to see an issuer decrease its annual fees and authorized user fees. Inflation affects credit cards, too.

Daily Newsletter

Reward your inbox with the TPG Daily newsletter

Join over 700,000 readers for breaking news, in-depth guides and exclusive deals from TPG’s experts

I think all of us could predict that Amex’s card refreshes would come with higher annual fees. Indeed, the cards mentioned above all hiked their annual fees as part of their refreshes this year.

Surprisingly, the refresh of the Citi Strata Premier℠ Card (see rates and fees) in May was comparatively minor. Among the changes Citi announced was a new card name, an additional bonus category (for electronic vehicle charging stations) and reintroduced travel protections — all for the same $95 annual fee. I would’ve expected an increase to $150, which I expect to become the new standard for mid-tier cards over the next couple of years.

Does that mean that when Citi potentially relaunches and rebrands the Citi Prestige® Card, it won’t hike its current $450 annual fee? Let’s hope — but I think it’s unlikely.

The information for the Citi Prestige has been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.

I also predicted that the Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card would increase its annual fee to edge closer to its two main competitors, the Chase Sapphire Reserve® and The Platinum Card® from American Express. That (thankfully) didn’t happen.

In fact, the lower annual fee played a role in Venture X winning Best Premium Travel Card at the 2024 TPG Awards, as it has remained at $395 since the card launched in November 2021. This comes even as Capital One continues to expand its lounge network and opened its first Capital One Landing this fall. As a Venture X cardholder myself, I think the relatively modest $395 fee makes it worth holding onto the card year after year.

More premium card competition: Partially correct

With American Express, Chase and Capital One dominating the premium travel rewards card space, we expected Wells Fargo and Citi to join the party — and we were misguided on that.

In late 2023, Wells Fargo announced plans to launch a new card, which we expected to be a premium card. But in March, the mid-tier Wells Fargo Autograph Journey℠ Card (see rates and fees) hit the market with a $95 annual fee, positioning it as a competitor to the Chase Sapphire Preferred® Card and the Citi Strata Premier. The good news is that it was accompanied by the launch of Wells Fargo’s first-ever transfer partners.

As previously mentioned, we expected Citi to relaunch its top-tier rewards card as the Citi Strata Elite, a trademark it’s been sitting on for two years now. So 2025 might be the year they actually move on this. But, then again, Citi also registered a “Strata Lounge” trademark in October, so the issuer may wait until its first airport lounge is ready to open its doors. Given the long runway to get these spaces built, this probably won’t happen until 2026 at the earliest, pushing back the potential relaunch date.

Having said that, we’ve seen a substantial heating up of competition in the airport lounge wars.

The leader, Amex, added Centurion Lounges at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) in February and Washington, D.C.’s Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) in July and was named the Best Credit Card Lounge Network at the 2024 TPG Awards. Lounges at Salt Lake City International Airport (SLC) (2025) and Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) (2026) are slated to open next.

Capital One also debuted a new lounge concept at DCA in November, offering suburb dining options (albeit in a small space).

But the credit card issuer lounge that impressed me most was the new Chase Sapphire Lounge at New York’s LaGuardia Airport (LGA), which opened in January and won the Best New U.S. Lounge award at this year’s TPG Awards.

Chase also opened four additional lounges this year at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), Dulles International Airport (IAD) near Washington, D.C., Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX) and San Diego International Airport (SAN) — though Chase will close its lackluster Chase Sapphire Terrace at my home airport, Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS), in March.

Lounge access restrictions: Correct

The travel world was abuzz with talk of overcrowded lounges in 2022 and 2023; that seems to have been replaced by talk of overcrowded destinations this year. Nevertheless, it can still be hard to find a seat in many lounges — if you aren’t stuck waiting in line to get into the lounge in the first place.

Coming into 2024, we already knew about limits on Delta Sky Club access (starting from February 2025), Hilton cobranded cards losing Priority Pass access (by January 2025), and the removal of lounge passes that come with the Capital One Venture Rewards Credit Card and the Capital One Spark Miles for Business (as of Jan. 1, 2025).

We predicted more announcements about tightening lounge access, whether reducing annual visits or completely eliminating it for select cardholders.

Since then, we’ve seen Capital One and Amex launch live capacity trackers and online waitlists to manage capacity at their lounges. (Chase, it’s time to get on the bandwagon).

Chase Sapphire Reserve® cardholders like myself were disappointed when it was announced that they would lose Priority Pass restaurant access from July. Some Capital One Venture X Business cardholders also lost access that month.

However, we could see this coming, with Amex cardmembers having this benefit cut back in 2019 and other Capital One cardholders losing access last year.

Hopefully, these changes will have an impact on crowds and remove the need for further restrictions in 2025 — though only time will tell if that’s the case.

Lower interest rates: Correct

I’m sure I’m not the only one who started 2024 exasperated by stubbornly high interest rates — and I don’t think I’m the only one still holding out for further relief in 2025.

At the start of the year, many economists were predicting cuts from March onward. In fact, Morningstar predicted six rate cuts this year.

In reality, we had to wait until September for relief, when rates were cut for the first time since 2020. That month, we saw a 0.5 percentage point reduction, followed by a smaller 0.25 percentage point cut at the next meeting in November.

Traders are predicting a more-than-likely 0.25 percentage point cut at December’s meeting, bringing the potential total to three rate cuts in 2025, half of what Morningstar predicted at the start of the year.

It remains to be seen how aggressively the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2025, especially with changes in the political landscape.

Frequent flyers become frequent spenders: Correct

We predicted more programs to join American Airlines and Delta Air Lines in making elite status requirements stricter and further tying them to credit card spending — making us question even more whether airline elite status is worth chasing anymore.

With the ranks of elite members swelling over the past few years, United Airlines status is getting harder to earn next year, with qualifying thresholds increasing by about 25% across the board. At the same time, it’s improving the rate at which its top-tier cardholders can earn Premier qualifying points and increasing the maximum number of PQPs earned from certain cards.

Meanwhile, Alaska Airlines is moving in the same direction, increasing the amount of elite qualifying miles cardholders can earn through spending on an Alaska cobranded card from 2025. Alaska is also allowing members to combine their elite qualifying miles from both Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan and HawaiianMiles to help secure status (thanks to the merger of the two airlines). However, elite members will also earn fewer bonus miles on Alaska Airlines flights from next year.

Thankfully, American Airlines — whose status qualification period runs through the end of February — just announced that it won’t be changing qualification thresholds next year.

New transfer partners: Correct

Savvy TPG readers are already aware that transferable points are often worth more than those held with a particular airline or hotel (if this is news to you, check out our guide on why you should focus on transferable rewards). And the card issuers, especially the smaller ones, are listening.

The juggernauts — American Express, Capital One and Chase — didn’t add any new transfer partners this year.

Meanwhile, Bilt Rewards was the busiest in rejigging its lineup. While it lost American Airlines AAdvantage and HawaiianMiles this year, it added six more partners: three airline programs (Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan, Avianca LifeMiles and TAP Miles&Go) and three hotel programs (Accor Live Limitless, Hilton Honors and Marriott Bonvoy).

As previously mentioned, Wells Fargo launched its first-ever transfer partners, with six at the outset — one hotel and five airline programs (albeit with three of them all earning the same currency of Avios) — and added the twin programs of Virgin Atlantic Flying Club and Virgin Red later.

Meanwhile, Citi added one retail partner with Shop Your Way and two new hotel programs with The Leading Hotels of the World-affiliated Leaders Club program and Preferred Hotels & Resorts’ I Prefer Hotel Rewards program, of which only the latter offers (occasional) good value.

With all those changes, the value at which we pegged each of these card currencies from the start to the end of this year remained unchanged, apart from a brand-new valuation of Wells Fargo Rewards points at 1.6 cents each, lower than the other five.

3 other trends: Correct

We also correctly predicted more targeted welcome offers, such as those through the CardMatch tool, plus increased AI integration in customer service for cardholders and enhanced credit card security (amid an increase in the number of data breaches but a decrease in the amount of time to identify and contain them).

Related: How to identify and prevent credit card fraud

Finally, apart from the Wells Fargo Autograph Journey card launch, we saw Expedia’s new OneKey cobranded cards open to applicants in July, and the Capital One SavorOne Cash Rewards Credit Card rebranded in October — though other than that, it was a relatively quiet year with new products.

Bottom line

Reviewing our 10 credit card predictions for this year, we got eight of them correct and two of them partially correct, which is a positive showing.

Overall, we’ve seen credit card issuers seek to squeeze more spending out of their customers, especially through cobranded partnerships with airlines and hotels — and that’s only set to continue. The issuers have been particularly keen to incentivize loyal frequent flyers to spend on airline cobranded cards to reach elite status levels they’ve become accustomed to.

Moreover, we’ve seen competition in the airport lounge offerings that premium cardholders can access. This is good news for those who, like me, are agnostic to airline loyalty; rather, they want lounge access, regardless of which carrier they’re flying with.

As we close out 2024, stay tuned for our 2025 credit card predictions to keep abreast of what to expect in the dynamic world of cards and loyalty.

Related: The top travel trends TPG experts are predicting for 2025

For rates and fees of the Autograph Journey card, click here.